180410 PXP

Object met, Sold at F76%.

Controlled greed.

Sabi nga ni Sir Minch Daman, “Whip kung whip”!

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On the following day, this was happened.

I was happy that my bias was right.

Fibonacci 76% resisted.

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Else, if price continued further up I surely felt “whipped” which is just normal, no big deal.

I traded my plan, that’s it.

*Whipped – the feeling of regret for not being able to maximize the profit when price continues to move further from selling price.

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Ang kwento ni Pareng Homer sa Stock Market.

Alay para sa mga nasunog nung 2015
Kayo yung mga nangarap, nagtiwala, nasaktan, at bumangon muli.
Isa na ako dun. ahahahaha 😛

Ito ay tulong ko para sa baguhan sa stock market na nagnanais magkaroon ng magandang buhay. Para din sa aking mga kaibigan na gustong sumubok tahakin ang stock market at upang makatulong ito sa kanilang pagsisimula. Paalala, huwag tularan.

Ang Kwento

CHP01 - 11.50.png

CHP 1000 at AEP 11.5339 P/L: -136.85php, -1.19%
Total investment = P11,533.93
Current Value = P11,397.08

Nangarap si pareng Homer na magkaroon ng magandang buhay at nakita na ang stock market ang isa sa maganda pwedeng makapag-umpisang mag-invest na mababa ang puhunan sa halagang P5,000 lamang. Pinagaralan niyang maigi kung anu-ano ang mga stock broker na pwede niyang pag-pilian at anu-anu ano ang pwede niya din bilihin. Nag-join din siya sa mga facebook stock market group. Nag-register, naglagay nadin ng pera at ready ng mag-invest.

Nung nag-simula si pareng Homer napakasaya niya kasi “INVESTOR” na siya. Yehey! Palagi siyang nag-kukwento sa mga kaibigan niya at napakapositibo niya sa buhay. Dahil si pareng Homer ay walang gaanong nalalaman pa sa Stocks madalas siya nagbabasa sa mga social media katulad ng facebook. Sinusundan niya ang mga yapak ng mga binibili at sinasabi ng mga nagrerekomendang stock guru sa kanya.

CHP02 - 10.90.png

CHP 2000 at AEP 11.2330 P/L: -851.19php, -3.83%
Total investment = P22,466.08
Current Value = P21,604.89

Bumaba ang presyo ng binili niyang stock na CHP at dahil positibo si pareng Homer bumili ulit ito para siya makamura. Masaya ang kanyang pakiramdam kasi nagagawa niya ang sinasabi ng mga nasa social media “Buy low” tapos “Sell high”.

CHP03 - 11.10.pngCHP 2000 at AEP 11.2330 P/L: -464.77php, -2.07%
Total investment = P22,466.08
Current Value = P22,001.32

Araw-araw pinapanood niya ang galaw ng stocks at kampanteng kampante ito na nasa tamang landas siya. Iniisip niya na dahil maganda ang kumpanya at malakas gumamit ng semento ang mga tao tatas talaga ang presyo ng CHP.

CHP04 - 10.64.pngCHP 3000 at AEP 11.0458 P/L: -1,503.15php, -4.54%
Total investment = P33,137.47
Current Value = P31,634.32

Habang lumilipas ang araw may mga pababang nagaganap sa presyo ng stock. Positibo parin si pareng Homer na tataas parin ang halaga nito at ang mga pababa ng mga presyong ito ay panandalian lamang. Bibili at mag-iipon lamang siya habang ang bumababa ang presyo at kapag tumaas na siya ulit ay mababawi niya din ito.

CHP05 - 11.18.pngCHP 3000 at AEP 11.0458 P/L: 2.243.02php, 6.77%
Total investment = P33,137.47
Current Value = P35,380.49

Dumaan ang ilang linggo at tumaas na nga ang presyo ng stock ni pareng Homer. Naniniwala na siya na tama ang kanyang mga desisyon at kumita na nga siya. Sa panahong ito, lumakas pa lalo ang loob niya at naniniwalang eto na ang umpisa ng kanyang pagyaman.

CHP06 - 10.10.pngCHP 4000 at AEP 10.8168 P/L: -3,228.84php, -7.46%
Total investment = P43,267.26
Current Value = P40,038.42

Oops! Biglang lumagapak yung presyo! Mapapamura ng konti si pareng Homer sa mga panahong ito at nagdali-daling titignan ang social media para makakuha ng ideya kung ano ang nangyari. Mag-kakaroon ngayon ng ideya si pareng Homer sa kung anu-ano ang mga ginagawa ng investor at kanya itong gagayahin. Bibili ulit siya dahil may mga ibang investor na bumibili sa mga ganitong pag-bagsak dahil “DIPS” ang mga tawag dito.

CHP07 - 9.18.pngCHP 5000 at AEP 10.4949 P/L: -6,985.15php, -13.31%
Total investment = P52,474.34
Current Value = P45,489.20

Magsisimula ng mag-init ang ulo ni pareng Homer dahil bumaba nanaman ulit ang presyo ng CHP. Dahil mainit ang kanyang ulo bibili ulit ito dahil alam niya na bibili parin yung iba at si master kasi “Buy on Dips” at “Average down” ang ginawa daw niya. Lalo pang nagpatibay ng loob niya ng mabasa niya ang “Be greedy when others are fearful”. Saktong medyo nininerbyos na si pareng Homer nito, fear eh, takot siya, kaya bibili parin siya.

CHP08 - 9.80.pngCHP 5000 at AEP 10.4949 P/L: -3,912.89php, -7.46%
Total investment = P52,474.34
Current Value = P48,561.45

Ayun! Biglaang tumaas si CHP. Masayang masaya si pareng Homer kasi nakabili siya sa pinakababa. Sa sobrang saya niya minsan ay mapapatayo pa ito at mag-raRock & Roll! Makakaramdam nanaman siya ng panibagong saya at maniniwalang ito na talaga ang simula!

CHP09 - 8.28.pngCHP 6000 at AEP 10.1298 P/L: -11,543.41php, -18.99%
Total investment = P60,778.77
Current Value = P49,235.36

Biglang may hindi inaasahang balita at bumaba nanaman ang presyo ni CHP. Makakaramdam ng panlalabot si pareng Homer dahil hindi niya inaasahan ang nangyari. At dahil nasa isip na ni pareng Homer ang mga katagang “Buy on dips”, “Averaging down”, “Buy low, Sell High”, “Bodega”, “Accumulation”, “Buy on Fear”, at “Demand ng semento”, bibili parin siya dahil napakamura na talaga ng CHP. SALE! SALE! SALE! Alam niya din sa isip niya na marami silang may hawak pati si master at pareparehas sila ng ginagawa dahil kung sila “OKAY” parin magiging okay parin ako.

CHP10 - 8.60.pngCHP 6000 at AEP 10.1298 P/L: -9,640.59php, -15.86%
Total investment = P60,778.77
Current Value = P51,138.18

Magsisimula ng magdadasal sila pareng Homer at manlilisik pa minsan ang mga mata niya habang pakonti konting tumataas ang presyo ni CHP. Taas na, let’s go!, larga!, Lipad!, eto nah!, Boarding time!, in 3-2-1! Okada Bomba!, ilan lamang ito sa mga salitang nabibigkas ni pareng Homer habang pinapanood ang mga nagaganap bawat minuto.

CHP11 - 6.70.pngCHP 12000 at AEP 8.4248 P/L: -21,416.94php, -21.18%
Total investment = P101.097.36
Current Value = P79,680.42

Sa biglang paglagapak ni CHP, hindi makapaniwala si pareng Homer. Manlulumo ito sa kanyang makikita at matutulala. Lalakas ang pintig ng kanyang puso at titingin uli ito sa social media upang makibalita kung ano ang naging kaganapan. At muli, kakalma lang siya kapag nakakita ulit ng kakampi sa social media na ipinagtatanggol ang CHP. Strong balls, isang katagang patutunayan niya sa kanyang sarili na isa siya sa mga “Strong balls” ng stock market. Oversold, isa ulit panibagong katagang nalaman ni pareng Homer at tutulong sa kanyang pagkalma sa mga nangyari. Lalakas nananaman ang kanyang loob at dahil “Oversold” ang CHP, bibili nanaman ulit ito ng karagdagang shares PERO sa puntong ito hindi lang basta isang libong shares, DOBLADO NA! Eto na talaga! Surebol, Dobol na! Naniniwala siya na mas mabilis niya itong mababawi at lalaki pa ang potensyal na kanyang kita.

CHP12 - 8.22.pngCHP 12000 at AEP 8.4248 P/L: -3,340.19php, -3.30%
Total investment = P101.097.36
Current Value = P97,757.17

Ayun! Tumpak! Feeling Ginyus si pareng Homer! Sa wakas natapos nadin ang paghihirap ni pareng Homer, sabi niya sa kanyang sarili. Dito mo makikita na napatunayan na si pareng Homer na stong balls nga talaga siya. Makikita niya din na madaming mga naging kasama niya sa pagbili kay CHP ay nagpupunyagi. Napapa-Yehey! Yehey! na si pareng Homer! Papasalamatan niya si master dahil kung hindi sa kanya ay malamang hindi siya nakabili sa pinakamurang halaga. Pakonting ngiti ang makikita sa mukha ni pareng Homer na para bang isa siya sa mga matitinding investor ng stock market na nakabili sa pinakamurang presyo at ginyus sa stock market!

Sa pagtaas at pagbaba ng presyo ni CHP, naging manhid at nabawasan na ang pakiramdam niya sa kanyang perang inilaan. Nagtiwala si pareng Homer kay master at hinayaan ang kanyang investment na maging longterm. Naging busy nadin si pareng Homer at lumipas ang mahigit isang taon.

CHP13 - 3.64.pngCHP 12000 at AEP 8.4248 P/L: -57,808.30php, -57.18%
Total investment = P101.097.36
Current Value = P43,289.06

……na..su..nog si pa..reng Ho…mer.

Nakakalungkot isipin na sa bandang huli mag-isa siyang umiiyak at walang karamay. Ang kanyang pinaghirapan ay nawala. Hindi niya rin kayang sabihin sa kanyang asawa dahil natatakot siyang malaman niya ang kanyang pagkakamali. Mawawala na ang dating pareng Homer na positibo at mapapalitan ng matinding awa sa sarili.

Pagkatapos ng kumulang dalawang taon eto ang resulta ng kanyang investment ay naging P43,289.06 na lamang sa original na halangang P101.097.36. Nasunog ang mahigit kalahati ng kanyang investment. Para mabawi ni pareng Homer ang kanyang investment kailangan sa P8.45 or 232% increase.

kung ikaw si pareng Homer tutuloy ka pa ba at babangon muli?

Tapos ang kwento.

Kung ikaw ay nakakaramdam ng pagkakahalintulad kay pareng Homer mabuti sigurong tanungin muna ang sarili at magdahan-dahan, huwag magpadalus-dalos. Huwag basta makinig sa sinasabi ng iba at araling mabuti ang mga minumungkahi ng mga guru sa social media. Pag-aralan din mabuti ang bawat desisyon dahil hindi lang basta pera ang nakataya dyan kundi pati pangarap. At importante sa lahat “Huwag hahayaan lumobo ang Losses” o maubos ang inyong capital. Nandyan naman si stock market palagi at hinding hindi ka mauubusan ng stocks na pag-pipilian. Kaya aral-aral muna para hindi magaya kay pareng Homer.

Huwag mawawalan ng pag-asa dahil sa kabilang dako mayroon din mga tumaas katulad na lamang ni Double Dragon na namayagpag noong 2015.

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Noong unang araw ng 2015, mabibili ang bawat share ni DD sa halagang P7.50 lamang at umabot ito sa pinakamataas na presyong P80.00 noong ika-9 ng Hunyo 2016. Kung ikaw ay nag-invest P100,000 noong nasa unang araw ng 2015 sinwerteng nakapagbenta noong lumampas ng P75.00 ikaw ay meron ng isang milyon.

At para sa inyong reperensya, ito ang ilan sa mga stocks na malimit marinig sa social media at naimumungkahi; na maraming sinunog noong 2015. Ito ay dahil sa kabibili habang pababa ang presyo.

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MRP (dating MCP)
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EEI
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PXP
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*Ang itim na guhit na inyong nakikita na nasa itaas kapag pababa ang presyo ay 100MA or 100-day Moving average. Ito ang aking gamit upang malaman kung saan direksyon patungo ang galaw ng stocks. Maraari din kayong gumamit ng ibang teknik sa pag-alam nito.

Aral muna, bago invest.

Disclaimer: Ang kwentong ito ay gawa gawa ko lamang at walang katotohanan. Ito ay para magkaroon lamang ng ideya ang mga nagnanais magsimula sa stock market kung ano ang maaaring mangyari sa kanila. 🙂

Part 4.5 – Randomness

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The concept of the entire system maybe answered by a flip of the coin.

Most of us had started in the stock market with the hopes of financial freedom. The common jump start in stock market is being an investor. Buy low sell high, Buy and forget, Peso cost averaging and other different ways on how to earn from it. Starting from being an investor I had cultivated the idea of “Belief” in a certain blue chip company where its intrinsic value would meet a certain price per share somewhere in the future, this is called fundamental analysis. Unfortunately, my personality didn’t allow me to wait and sit for years to figure out if I was right or wrong with my fundamental analysis. The sudden shift into “Technical Analysis” didn’t go well ever since I’d tasted blood with my first quick earnings. Greed and Hope were fueled at a certain level where I got so deluded until I blew my entire account. Learned everything in the hard way from technical to psychological. My progress may have been to slow but I never gave in from what I believed could someday give us the life I first dreamed about.

Through pain I was able to understand clearly what I was taught. It took me a lot time and sacrifice to digest the simplest ideas taught in our lessons which I should have already learned or done ever since the program had finished but that wasn’t the case. All what I needed where given. They may sound simple but never they were when I’m already in front of my trading desk. No words could explain why I didn’t had the ability to comprehend those lessons. Through time I was able to learn their true meaning and the essence of each lesson as well as the advice given to us.

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Never I had an instinctive awareness to observe my behavior a year after the program had ended. Months and over a year had passed, by never giving up the process had led up to the point where I finally fully accepted what’s causing my bleeding. My erratic behavior during trading as well as how I handled my emotions were eased out after a long period of purge with the helped of books freely available in the web about self development and trading psychology. All of a sudden my understanding about the differentiation between investing and trading became clear.

Just like flipping a coin, trading is a game of probability. No one would know if you will win or you will lose. It’s about participating an event/setup/pattern when presented by the market. Every event is random where there’s no reason for us to think if it will go in our favor or on the other way around, just participate according your plan and analysis. There’s no need to think if either it could yield us profit or even if it it’s just other traders luring for profit. If the your bias is wrong, cut. Ride when you’re right until your parameters snap. Learn how to think in probabilities. It’s not about being right or wrong, the game is about being present when opportunity arrives. The risk-reward-ratio and the edge of your setup are the keys to success. In this way, you will be able to protect your capital as well as be able to ride the upside of the up-trending stock.

Five fundamental truths:
1. Anything can happen.
2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.

This is a matter of putting the odds in our favor just like how Casinos earn. The house advantage/edge is the difference between the true odds and the odds that the casino pays you when you win. In the long run, Casinos has a higher probability in winning over a player in the long run.

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The acceptance of this idea had literally changed the way how I understood the whole concept of trading. The randomness principle of trading could be the key to my long time dilemma in letting my profits run away due to my thinking. As a sample, the random distribution of wins and losses in 10 trades could be the following:

L-L-W-L-L-L-L-W- L-W

L-L-L-L-L-W-L-W-W- L

L-W-L-W-L-W-L-L-L- L

There’s no way a person would know any of this sequence. For us to be able to profit in this random event is to participate each trade by making sure that when the trade goes in our favor we ride in it until our parameters snap and cut our losses short when the trade turns the tide.

Understand these words from Mark Douglas.

Putting on a winning trade or even a series of winning trades requires absolutely no skill. On the other hand, creating consistent results and being able to keep what we’ve created does require skill. Making money consistently is a by-product of acquiring and mastering mental skills.

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ or ‘win’ and ‘lose’ no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.

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From an emotionally undisciplined trader my experiences and struggles had somewhat started molding me into a composed lone hunter. The pain I had suffered through the years of hardship had made me stronger and still making me a better version of myself.

Part 4.4 – Spark

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Yet another typical day, I’m about to purge once again from being caught up on a losing, again! This was just a classic me. The month of September wasn’t meant for my style. My setup was profitable from the previous months unfortunately when I tried using it with “Basura” stocks that’s what triggered the losing streak. The setup didn’t work with volatile stocks. This was the purpose of my purge to find out what went wrong and what could be the solution.

Maybe my greatest “Why” was, “Why are they doing it successfully whenever I have more time than they do?”. This always raises a question to my ability and limitations. It’s not merely keeping myself from blowing up my own portfolio rather pushing myself to face my greatest fears. Despite the fact that I was losing it’s more like instead of stopping I trying my best to catch the culprit than to dodge it. Through time, I figured out that maybe my losses weren’t only came from having a poor discipline but by facing my fears without being properly equipped with right skill-set as well.

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Always go to back to your “WHYs”. -an advice from my mentor

What I love about paintings specially abstracts is that they let my imagination work just by staring at them while trying guess what the artist tries to express. In every strokes, the choice of medium and the technique used describes how intricate the artist is.

There were certain traders who I really look up to and the only window between me and them would be their port snaps.  Photoshopped or not the only way to prove it is to analyze and dissect them if they are true or not. By talking to them and correlating their tips help me uncover what strategies work for them. Sitting down the whole day trying to grasp the “What”, “When”, Where”, “Why”, and “How” was always my goal.

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Staring the charts for quite a while I didn’t noticed that something had caught my attention. My eyes felt dry and irritated as I gaze towards the charts. My meals weren’t enjoyable anymore since my head was clouded with lots of questions. There was something that I was yet sure about that made me restless the whole day. I had a lot of trade dissections before but there’s something peculiar this time. There’s a feeling that this could be the missing piece that could iron out my tangled strategy. It was the same exact feeling back when I was in college where the answer was already in the back of your head but still can’t figure what was it. A missing variable or a constant in an equation to finally solve the problem I was up to uncover.

One thing was clear that moment that I wasn’t merely seeing a plain chart but more likely the movements of the trader! Maybe the difference this time was I came to a point where I believe I was able to digest the most basic fundamentals of the system which I needed to at least understand the level of strategies they used.

I’ve been honest at least to myself with my progress and to keep track with my development.

My recent trades from 10/23 to 11/22 after the latest purge on early of October.

171023 PRIM 5% hidden171023 ATN 5% hidden171106 GSMI sold 20.00 9.90% hidden171106 GSMI 21.50-23.30 7% hidden171103 IDC sold 7.80 at 2300+ 4200 at 7.60 - HIDDEN
171105 IDC sold 9.14 - HIDDEN
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The harmony between my subconscious being and human nature seemingly blend.

There’s another thing that I worry about after all these trades the euphoric state of mind which is also known as superman syndrome.

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All of a sudden I’m starting to hit small targets.

Part 4.2 – Revenge trading

A psychological archenemy that has been destroying me ever since. A deadly parasite creeping beneath the curtain of my ignorance had showed up. It felt has if this was the greatest battle between me and myself.

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This culprit has been eating up all my gains for quite sometime and kept me from moving any farther. A cycle where I was trapped from a long period of time. Not knowing that most of my mistakes were influenced by my lack of understanding with my behavioral nature. Focusing solely on technicals had made me running in an endless cycle of delusion. Without faith and inner drive to push through I may had given up already.

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*Revenge trading is an act of increasing position size to regain quick what was lost in previous trades. It messes with self control and discipline by neglecting self imposed trading rules. Every time a trade turns into loss the more a trader gets eager to regain what was gone which is also usually ends up losing profits and far worse incurring greater amount of loss. This event keeps a trader from profiting the market and sometimes makes them find another way to counter the event by changing their technical strategy. The cycle repeats over and over again.

Honestly, due to the fact that my capital was way too small compare to the original that’s why I always thought going all-in to win big. With this mentality, it made my trading very emotional. Emotions were too great where I always find myself deviating from my own rules and strategy. My behavior when the market is close differs when I’m in front of the computer watching price action.

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Lack of self control and letting everything fall into the hands of the others was always been my problem. Carelessness and irresponsible with my action were curse. By observing ownself before, during and after every trade helped me understand what’s going on with myself. Teaching ownself to do this and that won’t be easy. Human nature is one of the hardest thing to changed. The habit of doing the same thing over and over again to satisfy inner desire even if will cause hate.

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I will fix myself.

Part 4.3 – Leap of fate

With the responsibility I bring onto my shoulders, this could the greatest leap of fate I will ever take.

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In years of my trading journey, I came to a point where I had grasp the foundation of the technical strategy I am comfortable with as well as the necessary psychological awareness a trader must have. With all the hardship and sacrifices I went through, finally I was able to talk to my wife and tell her my experiences in the hope of getting her trust and support.

The long painful journey which I still keep my faith in was clouded with doubts. It pains to realize that the idea which I believe could get us out from corporate slavery was under questioning. I was so afraid to anyone to know what I’ve been doing with my endeavor. It kept me underground for a long time, not sure if it did any good or just made my situation far even worse. Keeping it in secret gave me a plenty of time for doing trial and errors as well as gaining a great amount of experience.

Long story short, it took my wife few weeks to accept it, the losses. We had a couple of fights. It was never easy to carry the pressure as well  as the stress I’ve incurred. I thought of releasing would greatly changed the phase of the game.

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Laying my step-by-step plans for 2018 from micro to macro goals and the things I should be prioritizing I strongly believe that anything is possible. Since my wife has her eyes on me now together with the experience and skills I’ve acquired it seems that I would be more extra careful and be more responsible with all my decisions.

I’m blessed to have such lovely wife who supports me in the greatest of my ability.

Part 4.1 – Embrace the fears

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“Expose yourself to your deepest fear after that..you’ll be free”-Jim Morrison

Since I experienced drowning with Basura stocks I told myself to keep away from them. It paid off as well it kept from getting burned quickly. Had success with this kind of way until time led me to face my fears. In my opinion, I don’t want call “FOMO” maybe it was morel likely that I was able to build enough courage to face my fears once again. So, I traded Basura stocks using my setup.

From time to time, I talked to consistent traders in the tribe and ask for advice and their opinions. There were full time and the part time traders who doesn’t have the luxury to be in the market all the time. I’ve noticed that the ones who trades part time and does have shifting schedules were trading mostly “Basura stocks”. On the other hand, I’m doing the opposite. I trade medium cap stocks also known as “2nd Liners” which is good and fits my style. Yet when no setup is available for me I honestly feel falling behind. Perhaps my inner self is trying to tell me something that I needed to do or act upon that feeling of not doing enough. The fact that they consistently milk the market, these are the guys who doesn’t have much time the way I do, that triggers me to embrace my fears.

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Failed

I have problems with my emotion in my trades. My studies had given the answer why I wasn’t doing any good with these emotions. Here are just some of the reasons why:

  • Hope – the result of not accepting loss in a trade.
  • Greed – produce by the notion that I needed to recoup my losses quickly, sugarol mentality.
  • Anxiety – Uncontrolled losing streak with huge losses due to poor position sizing. Always betting big only to lose big. No plan B, C, D, etc. All in mentality.
  • Fear – Caused by losing streak which tends to break the confidence and conviction.

Something triggered my uncontrolled self. My behavior was the main problem in handling unwanted reaction/decisions.

When will I get better?