My Trade: TBGI 180712 – 1 Hour trade

Afternoon volatility

10% in 1 hour trade with TBGI

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Past Struggles (throw back)

A year ago.

Just I was reading around some of my fellow trader’s blog, I stumbled upon this snapshot of our previous open forum in the group:

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Source: Tiyopit
https://tiyopitblog.wordpress.com/

“There was a time I lost faith sa system, sorry to say. Sa sobrang eager ko na makabawi sa losses ko, hindi ko napasin yung mga trades got more and more risky kasi akala ko ZFT System – WOW agad”.

-Neo Gambit-

So, I thought it was the holy grail which I was looking for. Of course, I was wrong which triggered me to lose faith in the system where I started adding other indicators etc. This lasted for like 2-3 months but I didn’t hesitated to give it another shot which I didn’t regretted after all.

In reality, after the program, i think most of us struggled.

Yes, that’s true! Most of us struggled after the program some even blamed their failures to their mentor. The session took almost whole day since almost everyone of us participated in sharing our past experiences after the program. I pulled out some courage to express my struggles in the group. Honestly, that time I never met even a single person in the tribe. Even though we use fancy names and images to portrait ourselves I still felt the sincerity of the people behind everything.

It isn’t about what I look like rather who I am and what we aim for.

In that moment, it felt like everyone dropped their guards down as we went “all in” with all of our frustrations and struggles. Surprisingly, there were some who suffered even way more than what I’ve experienced, some of their struggles gravitates even to their personal lives.

A great pressure was released after I took my turn.

 After expressing all my struggles and being able to receive the most honest advice I could get elsewhere I felt joy. I cherish those moments back then even there was no guarantee that I could be where I am at now. The only thing that I was thankful about myself was the belief in my ability that I could do it someday. Never knew I could generate success with my trades way more than I could imagined. The grief of each in everyone of us reminds me on how we wanted to succeed in this battle very badly.

Work now, get paid later.

I’m very grateful for being surrounded by like-minded people who share the same goal as I do. In my opinion, the tribe didn’t only shared us how they trade using technical strategy they also helped us grow and develop as trader who I wanted to be. They were always there to answer all my questions and share the knowledge they have even though they don’t me personally. I found that the tribe isn’t just about the technical system, it’s a collection of people sharing and helping each other where the technical system they teach was just the beginning.

So, anyone who would think that the answer in “becoming consistently profitable in the stock market” is to learn Technicals or to know what the ZFT weapons are (even though they were revealed for quite awhile now), that idea is delusional!

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Well, this may be hard to accept but the only way to succeed in this game is to Get your hands dirty!  Learn technicals, risk management, mental skills, journaling, and there’s more… accumulate experience, back test, study, reflect, do your own research, create rules, find your niche/style, etc, all these!

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Learn it the hard way, there’s no other way around.

Get all the resources which are readily available in social media, youtube, blogs, etc or better yet find a mentor and attend seminars about trading. Study all of them over and over again until you no longer needed a copy to remind yourself.

Practice, Practice, and Practice!

Failures are necessary ingredients in our development. Without mistake there’s probably no growth. Keep a good reference of your mistake and correct them. Learn from them.

Fail, Fail, and Fail!

Take everyday as an opportunity to grow. Don’t let time pass without tweaking your learning curve up by few percent. Small accumulated learning progress will grow in the long run.

Develop, Develop, and Develop!

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Believe in yourself.

“Sacrifice few years of hard work for a lifetime opportunity.”

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P.S. Kudos to my fellow Spark who’d never gave in since that day. Nowadays they work in silence and slowly growing their port back. Others are already enjoying the fruits of their labor.

At, eto yung isa sa mga pinaka -malupit at mabait din, si sir Wolves Okami! Few months after eto nagawa niya.

https://wolveshive.wordpress.com/2018/04/23/how-i-turn-8k-to-700k-in-1yr/

2018 End of first half

When my mentor showed me his success trades during our program I was pretty amazed with his achievements. I didn’t have any idea on how did he do it nor what magic system he has but there’s one thing I thought about that moment,

I want them!

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One of the unforgettable statement which my mentor told us was,

“I will teach you how to become a lone hunter!”

That really fired me up to the core! It’s a goal which I tell myself from time to time.

March until May was dull for me where I needed to reduce my exposure and trading activity, I was more into back testing my strategies. The first half ended with lots of lessons and realization in my entire trading performance both psychological and technicals. There was a significant development compare to the previous year in terms being vulnerable to uncertainties. Though I wasn’t able to hit a triple digit gain just like my mentor’s port snaps but at least I own something which I’m proud of.

These were not much but I’m happy to share my trades in the first half:

180319 LRW 10% hidden180319 MHC 22% hidden180321 PXP 10% hidden180322 VUL 6% hidden180326 MHC 10% hidden180410 PXP 10% hidden180125 NOW 13% hidden180131 TBGI 20% hidden180215 APX 15% 1.76-2.00 12% hidden180222 HVN sold 328-369.8 10%180226 MRC 0.66-0.80 20% hidden180611 MAH +29.30% hidden180618 PRMX +11% hidden180625 ISM +10% hidden180626 VUL +9% hidden180620 IS +5% hidden

No reco.

No guru.

No social media.

No news.

I’m still working out to improve more in preserving profits and getting more detailed into the specific of my strategies as well as being more critical in managing my risks in every trades taken.

Day by day, I get more and more excited. Another week, another month, another opportunity. I feel more energetic waking up 5 o’clock in the morning (middle east time) to prepare for the market open while people around me are comfortably sleeping.

A blanket and a cup of tea are the best during a chilling Dawn!

Today is the first day of July, the first day of second half. A new challenge has arise and I’m ready for it.

All I can say now is:

“(sighs!) Nag-bubunga na din sa wakas!!!!

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Technical analysis won’t make you rich?

This has been one of the interesting questions I’d ever encountered in stock market before jumping into technical analysis. After watching one of Kap Kidlat’s trading RX with Zeefreaks episode, I found interest in tackling this topic according to the best of my knowledge. You may listen to the interview by clicking on the link below for your reference:

Trading RX Ep. 7 Part 1 – “ZEEFREAKS”

“Technical analysis won’t make you rich?”

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Oops! That is one bold statement there! The first time I heard this quote was from a so called “market guru” when I was merely searching about technical analysis. I think he is one well-known fundamentalist in the Philippines. He looks pretty decent, sound very well-informed with all his social media stock related posts. I knew him as a successful investor with all the luxurious stuff I’m seeing in his Facebook account. He was like my rockstar back then.

In my point of view that time, that was quite a bold statement to begin with. If someone haven’t yet decided where to start the journey in stock market that statement might likely lead one’s interest to “fundamental analysis”. Of course, if someone doesn’t have any idea yet on what’s happening or what to do, and that statement will scare anyone off of Technical analysis, right? There’s nothing wrong with the statement itself.  For me, it sounded very one-sided. Well, maybe it’s all because of this guy below.

 

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Warren Buffet – a famous fundamental analyst, a billionaire, and a philanthropist.

If the guy who asked ZF in that interview thinks ZF himself was indeed rich for him. Logically, that statement from the market guru was already wrong. Isn’t it? Wait! you might be arguing that we’re talking about billions here and not millions, right?

Well, here are some of the world’s best Technical Traders of all time”

  • Paul Tudor Jones II – 3.6 Billion, Forbes 2012 #330
  • Steven Cohen – $8.8 Billion, 2012 Forbes – #106
  • Ray Dalio – 10 Billion, 2012 Forbes #88
  • James Simons – 11.0 Billion, 2012 Forbes – #82
  • At his peak in 1929, Jesse Livermore was worth $100 million, which in today’s dollars roughly equates to $1.5-13 billion
  • John W. Henry is a trend follower. He worth $2.1 billion. (reference)
  • Bruce Kovner is a trend follower, featured in Jack Schwager’s ‘Market Wizards.’ Kovner is worth over $5.3 billion.(reference)
  • David Harding is worth over $1.387 billion. (reference)

Whew, those are quite of names there. Indeed, there were traders who got rich in technical analysis. According to my research, the statement said by the market guru should NOT be true. Thus, Technical Analysis is another way in extracting fortune not only in equity markets but also in Forex, Crypto-currencies, etc.

So, that just means…

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“Technical Analysis can make you rich.”

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No worries.

MAH Trade

My Trade 11-June-2018 – MAH

#bear market

After the huge rally, MAH went at rest for few days around F23%, a bullish zone. I thought if the bottom would hold there’s a good chance that the price would swing to the box top. When price broke the box top I was already ready to sell but it went ceiling. Few more minutes before closing I remained vigilant for if something could go wrong I’m ready to react, sell down happened.

Bought on 07/06 near box bottom and on 11/06 upon breaking out above the 50% of the box. Sold right below the peak.

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5 steps on how to develop your stock watch-listing.

Most of the new traders may have or most will have hard time making their own watch list due to lack of knowledge on how to start. One of my main frustration when I was just starting out as a trader was to find which stocks should I trade. With nearly 300 stocks to choose from it was hard for me to figure out which stocks was good or bad. It took quite awhile for me to develop my own watch list from being a zero-knowledge up to knowing myself as trader. Here are some 5 steps which may help develop your own watch list.

5 steps on how to develop your stock watchlist.

First, you have to choose what or which system you would like to use as your trading system. In the very complex world of trading, one of the important things to seek is to find a trading system. It would be best to find a mentor who you believe in and willing to teach the system they use. This will greatly save you time in finding your own system. Trading systems are developed through years of hard work and back testing that as well includes enormous amount of losses and struggles. Others have taken long years just to develop such. No wonder why others pay huge amount of money to acquire it. The trading system should help identify the trend of a stock either it’ll be a downtrend, ranging, or uptrend. With all the stocks listed in the market, you may want to pick only those which trend are in you favor. You may want to start by looking first for stocks which are currently up-trending.

Second, you must know your trading style. Trading style is identified once you’ve gained experience in your system. Your results will tell where you’re good at. You’re either one of these traders: Swing, Position, Breakout, Scalper, Bounce, Momentum, Trend follower, etc. At this point, your list will be further reduced down to your trading style. Once you’ve figured this out, it would be easier to find the patterns your trading style tells you which will then reduce your list.

Third, you must know what specific setups you are looking for. With respect to your trading style, the setup may come from a long consolidation phase, 52 week or all time high, moving average crossovers, MACD crossovers, Elliott wave period, Descending triangle, Flag pattern, Cup & Handle, Bullish Retracement, etc. From these, you come down with your list by prioritizing those which more likely are in your niche and are ready to get triggered at any point in time.

Forth, you must know what or which setup would give you good “risk-to-reward ratio”. Without mastering your system this maybe a little confusing on where to plot your supports and resistances or on how to measure your risk -reward. You must be able to identify which setup may yield higher profit compare to the other. Since trading is all about risk and reward, one of the crucial steps before jumping into trade is to calculate how much you may lose and profit. This may lead you probably down to a single digit list.

Fifth, experience will give you an edge to find specific signals or events you look for. These are in-depth information which you will identify along the way. The more you get use to your trading way the more it gets more detailed down to small bits. It’s more like a calibration of the third step. This is the point where you finally knew yourself as trader and as time passed by you were able to specifically find small details of information such as the behavior of the stock, volume activity, candlestick formation, convergence/divergences, etc. This will put out the flavor of your recipe according to your taste.

In summary, you must have the following:

  1. Trading system
  2. Trading style
  3. Setup
  4. Risk & Reward
  5. Experience

At the end of the day how you search, choose, and develop your watch list will eventually align to your trading routine and style. You might start very general with your selections or may not be convinced with your filtering method but eventually your watch list will get better once you figured out who you are as a trader.

Being a Jack of all trades may sound good but not in trading because you’re a master of none. It’s advisable to be more specialized in one niche. A niche where you may dominate or at least be good at. Focusing where your strengths are will give you higher chance of raking good rewards. Imagine having 5 bounce plays, 4 breakout plays, 3 swing plays, and another 4 trend follow plays in your watch list,  which will you pick among these 16 possible trades? will you trade them all? This happened to me and I messed up. The feeling was like taking care of 5 small silly kids all at the same time. If 3 out of 5 stocks went on the other direction specially when the fluctuation was huge it might or usually ends with catastrophe.

Where you keep your watch list depends what tool you want to use. Either it’ll be in a spreadsheet, chart images, manual notes, or saving them directly in an online charting platform. Up to you!

These are just my personal choice to help our fellow traders and guide them towards their development. There are lots of good guides out there which you may search to better help you with your watch listing. I hope you find this post helpful and I would be glad if you share thoughts or suggestions.

Part 4.8 – In due time

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Time for losing, time for gain.
Time for pain, time for joy.
Every purpose under heaven has a TIME.

The slow and painful process of growing. Many times we found ourselves in a very hard situation where there’s no light or any sign of development. The intensity of the feeling in every moment of hardship was overwhelming. Changing something natural in our behavior like emotion or habit is difficult.

Always found myself in a hard situation where I, myself can’t even control my own behavior when it comes to greed and hope. It’s too intense as I have this “gambler mentality”. Unaware of my impulsiveness in trading which as well caused to many mistakes. The thought of “I can earned it back in my side line and salary” hindered my awareness of my actions too. It’s hard to imagine how will these natural behaviors be changed when they were indeed engraved within us.

In our program, what I knew before were merely an introduction of the whole process. It was like driving a car for the first time, you were taught that steering wheel is for direction, clutch is to gear, accelerator is to speed, brake is to stopping, etc but didn’t really have the skill and experience to drive “safely”. Learning stocks is no different but since money is involve – this what makes the game very challenging. It’s either you make or break.

When I learned the basic technical analysis I thought that’s it, Alas! Even without well planned strategy I eagerly jumped in and out of the stocks only to find out it wasn’t enough. A lot was missing in all my trades. Never thought that it was just the epic “IN THE BEGINNING.”

The advice that my colleague, mentors, and books I’ve read where actually very simple to understand BUT very difficult “for me” to follow.

Simple rules like:

  • cut no mercy
  • stick to plan
  • don’t mix emotion with trading
  • purge of losing streak
  • don’t over-trade
  • protect your capital
  • etc

Time had significantly changed me not only my way of thinking but also my entire vision of my life. Some of the tribe I talked to had their turning point roughly 6-12 months after their full course with draw-downs around -40%. As for me, I already blew up my account twice after a year since our program. Since I already lost a significant amount of money in trading my equity was too small compare when I was profiting significant amount. This was another reason why I had long time problem going “all in” in my trades, hoping for fewer flucs, hoping for reversal, the one big trade, etc.

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All those moments I was wondering about giving up in this field were still vividly clear. The wounds of overwhelming feeling of not getting any result, the fear of giving up my dreams, as well as surrendering the battle which I started in the first place were still fresh in my mind. The essence of failing and getting back up again and again had shed light. The purpose of the failures in my journey had helped create my own path. The process of learning and developing in my own phase had really dug a strong foundation in my perception on how trading works both technically and psychologically.

Failure is success in progress.

The small pieces of advice slowly sunk in one by one as time teaches me in every mistake I commit along the way. Time had given me enough room to grow with my limitations and weaknesses. Never I was more aware of myself. Experience, the people who surrounded me, and all the accumulated mistakes came across have given me the wisdom to manage these culprits in my trading. My natural learning process had been slow and tough but I never had given up in believing to myself.

Slow progress is still a progress.

I may not be a good example but the things I never knew I could turned into reality.

The bandwagon of 2018’s first quarter

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At some point in time, at your own phase, all your wounds will heal and your pain will get paid off.

In due time.